{"id":144699,"date":"2016-10-01T12:38:54","date_gmt":"2016-10-01T10:38:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/?p=144699"},"modified":"2016-10-01T12:38:54","modified_gmt":"2016-10-01T10:38:54","slug":"slovenija-ne-bo-imela-nobene-koristi-od-cete-je-pokazala-studija","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/slovenija-ne-bo-imela-nobene-koristi-od-cete-je-pokazala-studija\/","title":{"rendered":"Slovenija ne bo imela nobene koristi od Cete, je pokazala \u0161tudija"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"lead\">\n<p>Trgovinski in investicijski sporazum med EU in Kanado, znan pod kratico Ceta, bi imel minimalne u\u010dinke na slovensko gospodarstvo, je pokazala \u0161tudija u\u010dinkov, ki jo je \u017ee lani izvedel Center poslovne odli\u010dnosti na ljubljanski ekonomski fakulteti. Skupni u\u010dinek na rast bruto doma\u010dega proizvoda (BDP) bi zna\u0161al manj kot tiso\u010dinko odstotka na leto.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"fotos\">\u00a0V javnosti je v preteklih mesecih bolj odmevala \u0161tudija u\u010dinkov sporazuma med EU in ZDA, znanega pod kratico TTIP, ki jo je prav tako naredil center poslovne odli\u010dnosti, pokazala pa je majhne, a negativne u\u010dinke. V prihodnjih tednih pa bo v ospredju predvsem Ceta (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement), saj na ravni EU te\u010dejo \u0161e zadnji postopki za njeno potrditev.\u0160tudija o Ceti je bila dokon\u010dana septembra lani, pod njo pa sta podpisana ekonomista Jo\u017ee P. Damijan in \u010crt Kostevc. V njej so ocenjeni u\u010dinki Cete na slovensko gospodarstvo po dveh scenarijih: v prvem scenariju raziskovalci predpostavljajo popolno liberalizacijo blagovne menjave in delno zni\u017eanje ovir v trgovini s storitvami, v drugem scenariju pa simulirajo u\u010dinke kon\u010dne verzije sporazuma, ki ne odpravlja vseh carinskih ovir.<\/p>\n<p>Simulacije ka\u017eejo, da bi imela uveljavitev Cete na slovensko gospodarstvo &#8220;razmeroma neznaten vpliv&#8221;. Simuliran kumulativni u\u010dinek na rast BDP bi zna\u0161al pribli\u017eno eno stotinko odstotka (0,01 odstotka) v 10-letnem obdobju oziroma manj kot tiso\u010dinko odstotka na leto.<\/p>\n<p>U\u010dinek Cete na rast BDP v EU naj bi bil v enakem obdobju pribli\u017eno trikrat vi\u0161ji, skoraj \u0161tirikrat vi\u0161ji pa na Hrva\u0161kem. \u0160e bolj ob\u010dutno gospodarsko rast bi po obeh simulacijah do\u017eivela Kanada, vendar so u\u010dinki sporazuma vseeno zelo skromni, navaja \u0161tudija.<\/p>\n<p>Podobno je z rastjo agregatnega izvoza. Ta naj bi se v Sloveniji zaradi Cete povi\u0161al med 0,01 in 0,015 odstotka, v EU pa za 0,033 odstotka, medtem ko bi hrva\u0161ki izvoz nekoliko upadel po obeh scenarijih, navajajo avtorji.<\/p>\n<p>U\u010dinki na posamezne gospodarske panoge naj bi bili zelo raznoliki, vendar pa zelo skromni. Negativne u\u010dinke naj bi med drugim ob\u010dutile kovinska industrija, industrija zra\u010dnega prevoza in elektronskih naprav, pozitivnih u\u010dinkov pa bi bile med drugim dele\u017ene lesna in papirna industrija, ostale predelovalne dejavnosti in zavarovalni\u0161tvo.<\/p>\n<p>Ceta naj ne bi prinesla niti ve\u010djih u\u010dinkov na zaposlovanje. Najve\u010dje izgube naj bi utrpeli panogi kovine in kovinski izdelki ter elektronske naprave, najve\u010dje koristi pa lahko pri\u010dakujejo v lesni in papirni industriji ter ostali predelovalni industriji.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Sklenemo lahko, da bo izvoz slovenskih podjetij, ki \u017ee izva\u017eajo v Kanado, s sporazumom Ceta postal nekoliko bolj konkuren\u010den. Vrednost izvoza obstoje\u010dih izdelkov se bo pove\u010devala, \u010deprav ne dramati\u010dno mo\u010dno,&#8221; navajajo avtorji. Ni pa mogo\u010de pri\u010dakovati bistvenih premikov zaradi samega sporazuma Ceta pri podjetjih, ki na kanadskem trgu ne prodajajo svojih izdelkov ali zgolj v manj\u0161em obsegu.<\/p>\n<p>Potencialne, \u0161e ne izkori\u0161\u010dene prilo\u017enosti sicer obstajajo za \u017eivilsko industrijo ter za pove\u010danje posrednega izvoza pri storitvah in v avtomobilski industriji. V slednji bo prilo\u017enosti la\u017eje izkoristiti, ker bodo izvoz poganjala tuja avtomobilska podjetja, katerim slovenska podjetja dobavljajo sestavne dele, so dodali.<\/p>\n<p>V analizi so sicer raziskovalci pridobili tudi mnenje treh izmed 10 najve\u010djih slovenskih izvoznikov v Kanado o Ceti. Vsi trije so izjavili, da posebnih te\u017eav pri izvozu na kanadski trg nimajo. &#8220;Nekateri pri\u010dakujejo pove\u010danje izvoza, vendar bolj zaradi lastnih prodajnih aktivnosti kot pa samega sporazuma Ceta,&#8221; \u0161e dodaja \u0161tudija.<\/p>\n<p>Na pristojnem odboru Sveta EU bodo Ceto predstavniki \u010dlanic EU potrjevali 12. oktobra, 18. oktobra bo nato sledilo odlo\u010danje na ravni ministrov. 28. oktobra naj bi sledil \u0161e slavnostni podpis na vrhu EU-Kanada.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kdo pravi, da jo potrebujemo za rast gospodarstva?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":144700,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1179],"tags":[6232,1910,1997],"source":[4511],"supertag":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Slovenija ne bo imela nobene koristi od Cete, je pokazala \u0161tudija - Hudo Slovenija<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/slovenija-ne-bo-imela-nobene-koristi-od-cete-je-pokazala-studija\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sl_SI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Slovenija ne bo imela nobene koristi od Cete, je pokazala \u0161tudija - Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kdo pravi, da jo potrebujemo za rast gospodarstva?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/slovenija-ne-bo-imela-nobene-koristi-od-cete-je-pokazala-studija\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hudo.si\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-10-01T10:38:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/10\/profimedia-0300747727.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"833\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"A. 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