{"id":181487,"date":"2016-12-25T09:24:29","date_gmt":"2016-12-25T08:24:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/?p=181487"},"modified":"2016-12-25T09:24:29","modified_gmt":"2016-12-25T08:24:29","slug":"leto-2016-brutalni-vojni-v-siriji-se-ni-videti-konca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/leto-2016-brutalni-vojni-v-siriji-se-ni-videti-konca\/","title":{"rendered":"Leto 2016: Brutalni vojni v Siriji \u0161e ni videti konca"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Eno najstarej\u0161ih mest na svetu z izjemno bogato kulturno dedi\u0161\u010dino je po ve\u010d letih spopadov v ru\u0161evinah, zlasti njegov vzhodni del, ki je bil v rokah razli\u010dnih uporni\u0161kih skupin. Najvi\u0161jo ceno srditih spopadov so pla\u010dali od vojne iz\u010drpani civilisti.<\/p>\n

Po ve\u010d kratkotrajnih prekinitvah ognja, za katere sta se dogovorili Rusija in ZDA, so sile sirskega predsednika Asada ob ruski pomo\u010di iz zraka in ob podpori \u0161iitskih milic iz Iraka, Irana in Libanona spro\u017eile ofenzivo za zavzetje celotnega Alepa. Decembra jim je to po neizmernem trpljenju civilnega prebivalstva in velikih \u017ertvah uspelo.<\/p>\n

Kaj bo sledilo padcu Alepa? Ali se bo Asad, ki se brez voja\u0161kega posredovanja Rusije verjetno sploh ne bi obdr\u017eal na oblasti, odlo\u010dil za osvojitev celotne Sirije? Ali se bo za\u010del proces federalizacije dr\u017eave, ki bi jo sestavljale sunitske, \u0161iitske in kurdske enote, podobno kot se je po vojni zgodilo z BiH?<\/p>\n

Strokovnjak za varnostna vpra\u0161anja Klemen Gro\u0161elj odgovarja, da bo veliko odvisno od odnosa med Rusijo in ZDA, \u0161e bolj usoden pa bo po njegovem mnenju odnos med ZDA in Iranom. \u010ce bo pod novim ameri\u0161kim predsednikom Donaldom Trumpom pri\u0161lo do zaostritve odnosov z islamsko republiko, bo celoten “\u0161iitski polmesec”, ki se razteza od Libanona do Irana, v plamenih, je opozoril v pogovoru za STA.<\/p>\n

“Zaostritev z Iranom bo pomenila zaostritev z vsem \u0161iitskim svetom in to bo Bli\u017enji vzhod pahnilo v nov krog nasilja in nestabilnosti, ki bo bolj \u0161e brutalen in usoden,” je posvaril Gro\u0161elj.<\/p>\n

V sirsko vojsko se je letos vpletel \u0161e en mo\u010dan regionalni igralec – Tur\u010dija, ki je \u010dez mejo poslala svoje voja\u0161ke enote. \u010ceprav se uradno bori proti skrajni Islamski dr\u017eavi, je njen namen prepre\u010diti nastanek kurdske dr\u017eave na severu Sirije in Iraka ter prepre\u010diti stike med Kurdi na severu Sirije in jugovzhodu Tur\u010dije.<\/p>\n

\u010ce se razmere v Siriji ne bodo umirile in \u010de bo pri\u0161lo do zaostritve odnosov med ZDA in Iranom, se Gro\u0161elj boji, da bo to v Tur\u010diji povzro\u010dilo izredno nestabilnost. “Ta nestabilnost bi lahko negativno vplivala tudi na \u0161ir\u0161o regijo, vklju\u010dno s Kavkazom,” je dejal.<\/p>\n

Medtem se vpliv Islamske dr\u017eave in njen propagandni naboj zmanj\u0161ujeta, izgubila je precej\u0161nja ozemlja. Je pa po Gro\u0161ljevih besedah presenetljivo, da je bistveno bolj trdo\u017eiva, kot ka\u017ee na prvi pogled. Presenetljivo ponovno zavzetje Palmire ka\u017ee na to, da ni tako neorganizirana in da voja\u0161ko dobro deluje, je ocenil strokovnjak in dodal, da tudi boji v ira\u0161kem Mosulu ka\u017eejo, da gre v voja\u0161kem smislu za trdega nasprotnika.<\/p>\n

Fizi\u010dno uni\u010denje Islamske dr\u017eave ne bo tako hitro in enostavno, kot se je morda zdelo ob za\u010detku ofenzive na drugo najve\u010dje ira\u0161ko mesto. Ira\u0161ke varnostne sile imajo velike izgube in Mosul za njih postaja ira\u0161ki Grozni, je menil Gro\u0161elj.<\/p>\n

Islamska dr\u017eava bo \u0161e naprej pomembno vplivala na stanje v regiji in Gro\u0161elj pri\u010dakuje, da bo na neki to\u010dki pri\u0161lo do neuradnega zbli\u017eanja pogledov in stali\u0161\u010d med d\u017eihadisti in Savdsko Arabijo. Islamska dr\u017eava bi lahko neuradno postala instrument v rokah Savdijcev, \u010de bi bila sirska vojska uspe\u0161na pri osvajanju dr\u017eave, predvsem pa pokrajine Idlib, ki je bila sredi\u0161\u010de sunitskega upora proti Asadu. “\u010ce bi se za\u010dela ofenziva na to obmo\u010dje, bi Islamska dr\u017eava lahko postala orodje v rokah sunitskih dr\u017eav, predvsem Savdske Arabije kot protiute\u017ei Iranu,” je menil.<\/p>\n

Gro\u0161elj ni pretiran optimist glede prihodnosti in opozarja, da so pred EU te\u017eki izzivi. Pri tem je izpostavil Severno Afriko, predvsem Libijo, kjer se za oblast borijo razli\u010dne milice in mednarodno priznana vlada. \u010ce ta dr\u017eava ne bo stabilizirana, bi po njegovem mnenju lahko pri\u0161lo do destabilizacije sosednjih Egipta in Al\u017eirije. “To pa bi bila no\u010dna mora za EU in prvovrsten varnostni izziv na celoten sredozemski del unije,” je \u0161e dejal Gro\u0161elj.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brutalna dr\u017eavljanska vojna v Siriji traja \u017ee skoraj \u0161est let in je do zdaj zahtevala \u017ee preko 300.000 \u017eivljenj. Vsa tragi\u010dnost najbolj krvavega konflikta 21. stoletja je do\u017eivela vrhunec v spopadih za neko\u010d najve\u010dje sirsko mesto Alep, ki je po \u0161tirih letih znova v celoti pod nadzorom sil predsednika Ba\u0161arja al Asada.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":140322,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1179],"tags":[6784,2853,2291],"source":[4511],"supertag":[7150,6103],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLeto 2016: Brutalni vojni v Siriji \u0161e ni videti konca - Hudo Slovenija<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/leto-2016-brutalni-vojni-v-siriji-se-ni-videti-konca\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sl_SI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leto 2016: Brutalni vojni v Siriji \u0161e ni videti konca - Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Brutalna dr\u017eavljanska vojna v Siriji traja \u017ee skoraj \u0161est let in je do zdaj zahtevala \u017ee preko 300.000 \u017eivljenj. Vsa tragi\u010dnost najbolj krvavega konflikta 21. stoletja je do\u017eivela vrhunec v spopadih za neko\u010d najve\u010dje sirsko mesto Alep, ki je po \u0161tirih letih znova v celoti pod nadzorom sil predsednika Ba\u0161arja al Asada.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/leto-2016-brutalni-vojni-v-siriji-se-ni-videti-konca\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hudo.si\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-12-25T08:24:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2016\/09\/profimedia-0300843099.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1250\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"819\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"A. 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