{"id":428469,"date":"2020-07-24T11:45:21","date_gmt":"2020-07-24T09:45:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/?p=428469"},"modified":"2020-07-24T11:45:21","modified_gmt":"2020-07-24T09:45:21","slug":"napovedi-niso-dobre-epidemija-v-sloveniji-nam-morda-zacenja-uhajati","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/napovedi-niso-dobre-epidemija-v-sloveniji-nam-morda-zacenja-uhajati\/","title":{"rendered":"Napovedi niso dobre: Epidemija v Sloveniji nam morda za\u010denja uhajati"},"content":{"rendered":"

V prihodnjem obdobju bo po napovedih IJS na dan potrjenih med deset in 35 primerov oku\u017ebe z novim koronavirusom.<\/p>\n

Ob tem dodajajo, da vpliv oku\u017eb, vnesenih iz tujine, ni ve\u010d pomemben, saj mo\u010dno prevladuje \u0161irjenje virusa znotraj dr\u017eave. Sedemdnevno povpre\u010dje efektivnega reprodukcijskega \u0161tevila – to \u0161tevilo ka\u017ee, na koliko ljudi en oku\u017eeni prenese virus – je 1,16, medtem ko je tridnevno povpre\u010dje 1,55, opozarjajo.<\/p>\n

Ob tem so na IJS izdelali \u0161tiri scenarije razvoja epidemije, ki so odvisni od vrednosti efektivnega reprodukcijskega \u0161tevila. \u010ce bo to \u0161tevilo ena, kar pomeni, da bo en oku\u017eeni naprej \u0161iril virus na eno osebo, bo \u0161tevilo umrlih do konca septembra naraslo na nekaj manj kot 150, \u0161tevilo hospitaliziranih bo ostalo pod 25, na intenzivni terapiji pa pod 10.<\/p>\n

\u010ce bo reprodukcijsko \u0161tevilo ostalo na sedemdnevnem povpre\u010dju, to je 1,1, potem bo hospitaliziranih na intenzivni terapiji nekoliko ve\u010d, a \u0161e vedno manj kot 10, \u0161tevilo ljudi v bolni\u0161nicah se bo povzpelo na blizu 50, \u0161tevilo umrlih pa na ve\u010d kot 150.<\/p>\n

V primeru, \u010de bo en oku\u017eeni \u0161iril virus naprej na 1,3 osebe, bo do konca septembra hospitaliziranih blizu 160 bolnikov s covidom-19, \u0161tevilo umrlih se bo s sedanjih 115 povzpelo na blizu 200. Na oddelkih za intenzivno terapijo pa se bo zdravilo 25 ljudi.<\/p>\n

\u010ce pa bo reprodukcijsko \u0161tevilo 1,5, kolikor zna\u0161a tridnevno povpre\u010dje, pa bi bilo na intenzivni terapiji okoli 75 bolnikov. Skupno \u0161tevilo 200 smrti bi presegli \u017ee sredi septembra, medtem bi bilo \u017ee v drugem tednu septembra hospitaliziranih ve\u010d kot 200 bolnikov s covidom-19 hkrati.<\/p>\n

Kot navajajo na IJS, bi bilo dobro spraviti reprodukcijsko \u0161tevilo spet pod ena, kar bi pomenilo, da epidemija uga\u0161a.<\/p>\n

“Glede na \u0161tevilo pozitivnih testov je za zdaj v drugem valu \u0161tevilo hospitaliziranih, na intenzivni in umrlih za vsako kategorijo pribli\u017eno 70 odstotkov manj\u0161e kot v prvem valu, predvidoma zaradi mlaj\u0161e starostne strukture potrjeno oku\u017eenih,” so \u0161e zapisali.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na Institutu Jo\u017eef Stefan (IJS) so izdelali novo projekcijo \u0161irjenja novega koronavirusa. Ocenjujejo, da \u0161tevilo novih primerov eksponentno raste, \u0161tevilo se podvoji v 35 dneh, medtem ko je efektivno reprodukcijsko \u0161tevilo ve\u010dje od ena, kar pomeni, da “nam epidemija morebiti za\u010denja uhajati”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":428078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1179],"tags":[15632,4781,1595],"source":[4511],"supertag":[5675],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNapovedi niso dobre: Epidemija v Sloveniji nam morda za\u010denja uhajati - Hudo Slovenija<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/napovedi-niso-dobre-epidemija-v-sloveniji-nam-morda-zacenja-uhajati\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sl_SI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Napovedi niso dobre: Epidemija v Sloveniji nam morda za\u010denja uhajati - Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Na Institutu Jo\u017eef Stefan (IJS) so izdelali novo projekcijo \u0161irjenja novega koronavirusa. Ocenjujejo, da \u0161tevilo novih primerov eksponentno raste, \u0161tevilo se podvoji v 35 dneh, medtem ko je efektivno reprodukcijsko \u0161tevilo ve\u010dje od ena, kar pomeni, da "nam epidemija morebiti za\u010denja uhajati".\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/aktualno\/napovedi-niso-dobre-epidemija-v-sloveniji-nam-morda-zacenja-uhajati\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Hudo Slovenija\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/hudo.si\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-24T09:45:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hudo.com\/si\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2020\/07\/Screenshot-from-2020-07-21-10-23-10.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"909\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"602\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"A. 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